Four years after home prices hit their peaks, CNNMoney looks at how 330 metro areas have fared.

Source: IHS Global Insight/PNC Financial Service

As of October 27, 2008 year to date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 37% of its value; the first 27 days in October accounted for an unprecented 20% of the Dow’s YTD losses. The NASDAQ is even worse, down 42% year to date. Investors have seen a staggering $8.3 trillion dollars evaporate in the stock market so far this year.

As if things weren’t bad enough, Hawaii investors trying to escape the bloodbath in the stock market by moving their investments into real estate are finding Hawaii’s real estate market a tough alternative. Real property values on Oahu so far have bucked the national trend of downward spiraling prices. This means high acquisition prices and low, or even negative, cash flows for investors. “On Oahu, investors are happy to just break even and avoid a negative monthly cash flow,” says Carlton Choy, a Broker In Charge at Premier Realty 2000.

Fortunately, it’s not all gloom and doom. Hawaii investors are turning to a safe and stable investment vehicle and are taking advantage of the downturn in California’s real estate market. Hawaii investors are finding big opportunities in Orange County, California.

There are hundreds of 2 & 3 bedroom homes in Orange County that are owned by banks that had to foreclose on the delinquent owners. These homes that sold for $300,000-$400,000 a few years ago, can be purchased today for as little as $100,000. That’s a 60%+ discount. Investors can buy these homes at 30 cents on the dollar. These homes generate anywhere from $1700-$2400 a month in rent. After all expenses, investors are experiencing positive cash flows of about $400/month per unit equating to a double digit return on investment. While double digit ROI’s and hefty positive cash flows are great, the real investment value is in its future value. It’s a reasonable assumption that these homes will return to the same value it sold for a few years ago. Where else can you invest your money today and reasonably assume that it will triple in value in the next ten years?

In contrast, owning or buying investment real estate on Oahu for the same amount of money will get you a small studio and a negative cash flow. On top of that, since Oahu has held its value, you’re paying “retail” for that property and future value is much more speculative. “I meet with investors several times a week looking to invest in Oahu real estate,” says Elliot Lau, a Broker In Charge at Premier Realty 2000. “When I show them the opportunity in OC, their initial response is that it’s too good to be true. That’s how great the opportunity is right now, and we have real numbers to support it.”

How can you tell that OC real estate is such a great opportunity right now? Follow the pros. Professional real estate investors lead the markets while amateur investors chase the markets. Right now, the pros are buying in OC. A leading indicator of real estate markets is the months of remaining inventory (MRI). It is used to gauge the type of market at any given time. 12 months ago, OC’s MRI was at 17 months; an extrememly strong buyer’s market. In less than 12 months, OC’s MRI is down to 7 months, considered to be a neutral market. Take one guess as to who’s buying all of that real estate? It is no longer a buyer’s market in Orange County. Premier Realty 2000, which has offices in Honolulu and Orange County, has helped many investors reposition their real estate holdings from Oahu to Orange County and triple their return on investment and cash flows. Investors like Paul Lam and Jared Nakamoto of Honolulu see this as a “no-brainer” and are buying as much as they can before this window of opportunity closes. “We expect that there’s about a year remaining for investors to invest in Orange County with such favorable conditions.” says Brian Laughlin, President and Principle Broker of Premier Realty 2000, heading the Orange County office. “The smart investors are seeing that Oahu real estate is not the place to be investing and that Orange County currently offers investors a rare combination of low acquisitition costs, great cash flows and tremendous appreciation potential in a safe and stable investment vehicle.”

Notice of default

Notice of Trustee sale

Updated List July 15, 2008 (New Foreclosure List)

Orange County Bank Distressed Sales

Notice of Default List

Notice of Trustee Sale List

Bank REO List

Update list July 29, 2008 (click here)

Orange County

NOD List

NTS List

Banked Owned

Los Angeles

Banked Owned

Riverside

Banked Owned

San Bernardino

Banked Owned

List Update for May 27, 2008

How Low Will They Go?

People have a major misunderstanding of what they expect to accomplish when trying to purchase distressed or bank owned property. I emphasize trying because those same people end up never buying anything.

So how low will the bank go on a short sale or REO? If you’re hoping for a number, you can stop reading. If you’re hoping to steal the property, you can stop reading. If you’re hoping to buy property for 50% of market value, you can stop reading. If you’re hoping to wait and buy the property for less by dealing directly with the bank, you can stop reading.

There are four things you need to understand: 1) The bank only accepts short sales when they believe it’s in their best interest! 2) Banks do not voluntarily accept losses. 3) Banks will always try to limit their losses. 4) Banks know the fair market value of the property.

These four are in no particular order. If they were, number four would probably be number one. I talk to people on a daily basis who want to make offers so low, I can only assume they think the bank has no idea what the property is worth. Don’t be so naive. The bank has a legal obligation to get the highest amount possible for any property. The bank can even be held liable for the difference if they are negligent in approving a sale that is too far under fair market value with no justification. Stories of someone picking up a property at 50% of market value are either urban legend or missing critical factors that played a part in the purchase.

You Can Get Good Deals In Distressed Real Estate

Yes you can. Just be realistic. If you think you can purchase real estate at a 50% discount, you’re not realistic. There isn’t one single situation, no matter how desperate, that would cause an owner to sell their home for 50% under market value when an experienced Realtor can sell that same house for 30% under market value in the same amount of time under the same conditions. Anyone who tells you they did is leaving out part of the story. However, it is very possible to buy distressed homes at a 25% discount. Anyone who tells you a 25% discount isn’t a good deal, doesn’t know real estate or investing in it and you’d be better off steering clear of the real estate advice they have to offer. As a matter of fact, a 25% discount on anything you buy, whether it be gasoline, groceries or a car, is a great deal.

I see so many people that won’t buy unless they can get it for no more than 60 cents on the dollar. They pass on property that’s 25% under market value. Big mistake, here’s why:

Let’s assume there are 10 properties with market values of $100,000 each. 9 of these homes can be purchased for $75,000 each (25% discount) and one at $50,000 (50% discount). This is a fair ratio for illustration purposes. In the real world, it could easily take you more than a year to wait it out for the 50% discount. It’s very possible that you never find something discounted that much.

Investor A buys the 9 homes for $75,000 each

Investor B buys the 1 home for $50,000

Assuming a 5% annual appreciation for each property, this is what each investors real estate portfolio would look like 5 years later:

Investor A’s Equity = $473,653 ($100,000 original FMV x 5% annual appreciation x 5years – $75,000 purchase price x 9 properties)

Investor B’s Equity = $77,628 ($100,000 original FMV x 5% annual appreciation x 5years – $50,000 purchase price x 1 property)

Investor B’s strategy to wait for the great deal cost him nearly $400,000. He made the mistake most amateur investors make; focusing on only one thing – discounted value. Investor A created wealth through leverage. Professional real estate investors know that leverage trumps discounted value every day of the year. Leverage is so powerful, had Investor A bought all 9 properties at full market value ($100,000), he still would have equity of $248,653 or triple Investor B’s investment with a 50% discount. In this market, you can buy real estate at a 25% discount all day long and maybe never find the 50% discount.

Top 10 Tips For Purchasing Short Sales and Bank Owned Property

1. Be realistic. Reread the tale of two investors above if you still don’t understand how being unrealistic can and will cost you dearly.

2. Get off the fence and get in the game. If you’re waiting for the market to drop, reread the tale of two investors above to remind you of how much waiting can cost. Learn more about timing real estate markets here: Secrets for Timing The Real Estate Market

3. Know the true market value of your target property.

4. When making an offer, be able to support the amount of the offer. Pulling a low ball number out of thin air isn’t going to work. If you don’t understand why, reread the four things you need to understand in bold type above.

5. In a short sale, the bank will only accept your offer if it’s a better alternative to foreclosure. This means that the bank will take the fair market value of the property in its current condition, subtract the costs of foreclosure and selling it as an REO, and the "fudge factor". The "fudge factor" covers the costs that will accrue if the bank has to take the property back at foreclosure and includes lost opportunity, risk of vandalism of the vacant property after foreclosure, declining market risks and time to sell as an REO. The "fudge factor" will be the only area the bank will be willing to negotiate. This is the supporting amount mentioned in tip #4.

6. In REOs, the bank can be more "motivated" during certain times of the year. They will generally be more likely to entertain low offers at the end of the month, quarter and year. The banks want to get real estate off their books and these calendar targets can create motivation. But remember, be realistic. Just because it’s nearing the end of the year, doesn’t mean the bank is going to jump at an offer that’s ridiculous.

7. Having access to REOs before they are listed can give you a big advantage. How do you get this information? Here’s one way: Hawaii REO Bargains

8. Don’t get emotional or stuck on any property. Real estate investing should be run like a business. Keeping emotions out of it allows you to make rational decisions.

9. Understand and accept the risks involved with these types of properties. To get the good deals, you will have to accept risks involved with them.

10. Retain the help of an expert Realtor with experience in these types of properties to help you. Don’t think you can do it yourself. That mindset can cost you thousands. Besides, as the buyer, you don’t pay for their services.

Hope this helps. Until next time, happy house hunting!

Elliot Lau

Orange County

Notice of Default

Notice of Trustee Sale

Los Angeles

Riverside

San Bernardino

Note: An updated list for foreclosure properties has been posted.  See link below.

Updated List May 5, 2008

Judicial Foreclosure Available: Yes

Non-judicial Foreclosure Available: Yes

Non-judicial Sale Typically, a title insurance company is named as the trustee to arrange the sale of the real estate.

California is famous for its one-action rule, in which a lender must carefully elect one action to take against the borrower if the borrower defaults. If the lender forecloses the deed of trust out of court, the lender has chosen one action and may not bring a lawsuit to recover a deficiency, which would be a second action. If the lender chooses to sue the borrower and obtain both a foreclosure order, and if the proceeds of the judicial sale of the real estate are not sufficient to repay the loan balance, then a deficiency for the balance. Such a suit is permitted as the lender’s one action.

California lenders rarely elect judicial foreclosures.

Preliminary Notice: Non-judicial

Notice of Sale

The notice of sale must contain the name, street address and phone number of the trustee conducting the sale and the original trustor, along with a statement warning borrowers that their property is about to be lost at a public foreclosure sale and to contact a lawyer for an explanation.

The notice must give the street address. If no street address exists, the notice must state the address of the beneficiary from whom a set of directions to the property may be obtained I they are requested in writing within ten days from the first publications of the foreclosure notice.

Advertising

A copy of the notice of sale must be posted in a conspicuous place on the property to be sold at least 20 days before the sale. If access to the property is restricted by means of a central guard gate, then the notice must be posted on the guard gate. A copy of the notice must be posted at one public place in the city where the property is to be sold (or judicial district in rural areas) at least 20 days before the sale.

Recording

A notice of trustee sale must be recorded at least 14 days before the sale.

Mailing

A notice of trustee sale must be mailed by certified mail, return receipt requested, 20 days before the foreclosure sale to the borrower, to anyone who requests notice or recorded a request and to the trustors, beneficiaries or parties at interest.

SaleProcedures: Non-judicial

Time

All sales under a power of sale in a deed o f trust will be made between the hours of 9:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. on any business day, Monday through Friday, at the time specified in the notice of trustee sale.

Place

The sale shall commence at the location specified in the notice of sale.

Manner

The sale must be made a public auction to the highest bidder. The trustee has the right to require every bidder to show evidence of ability to pay the full bid in cash, cashier’s check or certain bank checks. Each bid is by law an irrevocable offer to purchase. However, a higher bid cancels an earlier bid. It is unlawful and a criminal offense (a fine of $10,000 or up to one year in jail) to offer anyone consideration not to bid, or to fix or restrain the bidding process in any manner.

Postponement

Sales may be postponed by announcement at the time and location specified for the intended sale. The borrower may postpone the sale in order to obtain cash, provided the written request for postponement identifies source from which the funds are to be obtained, and the postponement is only for one business day. The borrower may obtain one such postponement.

Reinstatement

Debtors may reinstate up to five days before non-judicial foreclosure sale.

Junior

Junior lien holders may no longer redeem, so they may try to protect themselves by (1) advancing funds to bring the senior loan payments current, then foreclosing for the sums advanced; (2) bidding at the foreclosure sale so the price will be sufficient to pay off the senor and the junior liens; or (3) acquire the property by bidding at the foreclosure. If the debtor has a right to redeem and does so, the junior who purchased the home must be reimbursed. Junior liens do not reattach the property if a borrower redeems a senior lien whose foreclosure extinguished the junior. This helps borrowers by encouraging the junior to bid up to the property to fair market value at the foreclosure sale, or else lose out, giving borrowers closer to fair value at sale.

Deficiency

Lenders may not seek a deficiency judgment if (1) the foreclosure is non-judicial or if (2) foreclosure is on a purchase money obligation. The same rules do not apply to guarantee or later lien holders. The lenders may seize alternative collateral. If the lender forecloses by filing a lawsuit, then the lender can obtain both a foreclosure sale order and a judgment against the borrower for a deficiency after the court-ordered sale, but only for the difference between the judgment and the fair value of the security.

Redemption

A borrower’s right to redemption is terminated when a deficiency judgment is waived or prohibited. When redemption is permitted, after judicial foreclosure, only the borrower can now redeem and junior lien holders or "redemptionors" may not. When the lender is permitted to seek a deficiency, elects to pursue a deficiency and forecloses judicially, the borrower may redeem 12 months after sale, but a full credit bid by the lender cuts it to 3 months.