That, economists say, is the inevitable outcome of the nation’s ballooning debt and the renewed prospect of inflation as the economy recovers from the depths of the recent recession.

The shift is sure to come as a shock to consumers whose spending habits were shaped by a historic 30-year decline in the cost of borrowing.

“Americans have assumed the roller coaster goes one way,” said Bill Gross, whose investment firm, Pimco, has taken part in a broad sell-off of government debt, which has pushed up interest rates. “It’s been a great thrill as rates descended, but now we face an extended climb.”

The impact of higher rates is likely to be felt first in the housing market, which has only recently begun to rebound from a deep slump. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has risen half a point since December, hitting 5.31 last week, the highest level since last summer.

Along with the sell-off in bonds, the Federal Reserve has halted its emergency $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage debt, placing even more upward pressure on rates.  The 30-year fixed rate before the Federal Reserve bailout plan was 6%.  When the government bailout plan went into effect, consumers saw interest rates fall to historical lows below 4%.  Experts believe the end of the bailout plan on March 31 will spark a rise in mortgage interest rates back to levels before the bailout plan went into effect.

Each increase of 1 percentage point in rates adds as much as 19 percent to the total cost of a home, according to Christopher J. Mayer, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School.

Mortgage Calculator

The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the rise to continue, with the 30-year mortgage rate going to 5.5 percent by late summer and as high as 6 percent by the end of the year.

“We’ve gotten spoiled by the idea that interest rates will stay in the low single-digits forever,” said Jim Caron, an interest rate strategist with Morgan Stanley. “We’ve also had a generation of consumers and investors get used to low rates.”

Free Report: 6 Things You Must Know Before You Buy

For young home buyers today considering 30-year mortgages with a rate of just over 5 percent, it might be hard to conceive of a time like October 1981, when mortgage rates peaked at 18.2 percent. That meant monthly payments of $1,523 then compared with $556 now for a $100,000 loan.

No one expects rates to return to anything resembling 1981 levels. Still, for much of Wall Street, the question is not whether rates will go up, but rather by how much.

Some firms, like Morgan Stanley, are predicting that rates could rise by a percentage point and a half by the end of the year. Others, like JPMorgan Chase are forecasting a more modest half-point jump.

But the consensus is clear, according to Terrence M. Belton, global head of fixed-income strategy for J. P. Morgan Securities. “Everyone knows that rates will eventually go higher,” he said.

Source: New York Times

Four years after home prices hit their peaks, CNNMoney looks at how 330 metro areas have fared.

Source: IHS Global Insight/PNC Financial Service

1. Use a discount broker to sell your home.

When the market was going crazy just a few short years ago, selling a home meant putting it into the local MLS and prepare for the frenzy of buyers with multiple offers above list price. The market conditions at the time didn’t require much experience of the Realtor to get top dollar for your home.

That was then, this is now. Discount brokers rely on volume to make up the discounted commissions they charge. That volume doesn’t allow them to provide full services to the seller. Regardless of what they advertise, don’t believe for one second that they will. Their definition of “full service” means putting a sign and lockbox on the property, putting it into MLS, maybe hold an open house and review offers for you. If you consider that “full service”, you’re about to make the first costly mistake.

This market requires experience AND real marketing to get you top dollar for your home. Do some research on discount brokers. What you’ll find is either small 1-2 person operations or larger offices where most of their agents are new to the business with less than 5 years experience. They don’t have the experience or a real marketing system for getting your home sold. 2008 data shows that discount brokers take twice as long to sell your home and get 5% less than a full service broker. Lots of sellers lose thousands of dollars when they choose a discount broker because they’ll save 2% on the commission but net 5% less on the sale. It is totally acceptable to want to save money. But if you do your homework, you’ll realize that hiring discount brokers in this market is “being penny wise, and pound foolish.”

2. Cut the commission.

Just as in mistake number 1, the last real estate boom taught sellers to negotiate down the commissions. In that market, it was hard for Realtors to justify the 6% commission. It led to sellers expecting to pay reduced commissions as evidenced by a huge increase of market share for discount brokers. Once again, that was then, this is now. And now is not the time to be cutting the commission. You want to attract as many buyers as you possibly can. 91% of buyers in 2008 are introduced to the seller by a broker. With lots of inventory and choices available, which home do you think the broker will show their client; the home offering a reduced commission to the broker or a comparable home offering full commissions?

If you want to sell your home for top dollar, you should be increasing the incentive to sell your home, not decrease it. It’s natural to want to save money, but if your house sits for months on the market because there’s little incentive to sell it, how much is that going to cost you?

3. Price it too high.

I don’t care what your reason is. If you overprice a home in this market, prepare for a long and expensive lesson. The only market you can possibly overprice a home and still get it sold is in a rapidly appreciating market. In any other market, it just won’t sell. With so many homes for sale in this market, you’re better off not listing it then overpricing it.

If you have to sell, you’re going to have to bite the bullet and price it right. And don’t buy into the common thinking that you price it high so that you have room to negotiate. That mentality will be your next costliest mistake.

4. Keep it in the family or Sell it yourself.

It’s nice of you to want to help your niece who just got into the business, but underestimating this market and the need for experience is one of the costliest mistakes you can make. Thinking that all agents are the same and don’t see the need to interview and find the best agent with the experience to get your home sell will cost you both time and money.

Trying to sell it yourself falls into this same costly mistake. Thinking you have the knowledge and experience to sell your home in this market will be an expensive lesson.

I can’t emphasize enough how different this market is from a few short years ago. Making any one of these common mistakes in this market will be magnified and when you consider the value of your home, these mistakes amount to thousands of dollars. You wouldn’t consider going to an inexperienced doctor to treat a life threatening illness, or hire your part time nephew who just passed the bar exam to defend you in a big lawsuit. Just like these professionals, experience is everything. Don’t trust your biggest asset you own to someone without that experience. There’s a reason why professionals are paid well. They are entrusted with your most important things in life.

Hope this helps. Until next time, happy home selling.

Elliot Lau

]]> http://www.CrystalClearMarket.com/2008/07/14/4-costliest-mistakes-sellers-make/feed/ 1 http://www.CrystalClearMarket.com/2008/04/11/hawaii-march-housing-statistics-condo-prices-still-rising/ http://www.CrystalClearMarket.com/2008/04/11/hawaii-march-housing-statistics-condo-prices-still-rising/#comments Fri, 11 Apr 2008 12:06:55 +0000 Elliot Lau http://www.CrystalClearMarket.com/?p=117 Not Much Gloom and Doom For Oahu, Hawaii’s Real Estate Market

During March, Oahu sales of 282 single-family homes and 392 condominiums were reported through the Honolulu Board of Realtor’s MLS, decreases of 14.5 percent for single-family homes and 27.5 percent for condominiums, compared to the same month last year. This brings total single-family home sales on Oahu to 673 for the first three months of 2008, a decrease of 22.2 percent over the same time period one year ago. Total condominium sales through February were 1,037, a 23.8 percent decrease from last year.

While the number of sales continued to decline, the most important statistic shows Oahu real estate is holding its own. The median prices paid for Oahu properties were $628,000 and $329,300, respectively, a small decrease of 2.4 percent for single-family homes from the March 2007 price and an increase of 2.6 percent for condominiums. While single family prices declined, the small percentage is almost a welcome relief when comparing real estate markets across the country. The total dollar sales volume generated in the housing market for the first three months of the year was $974.1 million, a decrease of 18.0 percent or $213.1 million, compared to the $1.187 billion produced one year ago.

What Does All of This Mean?

“The Oahu median prices for both single-family homes and condominiums are still constant, while the sales volume for the market has slowed,” said Dana Chandler, President of the Honolulu Board of REALTORS®. “Even with the instability in the finance industry, the market for Oahu residential properties appears to be holding, unlike the very negative conditions we hear about on the Mainland.”

“There is a continued demand for residential properties, especially in the high-end, which could be an outgrowth of the weaker U.S. dollar and other local factors, such as our low unemployment and pleasant climate,” added Harvey Shapiro, Research Economist at the Honolulu Board of REALTORS®. “The limited availability of land and housing on Oahu should prevent any significant downturn in prices.”

Hawaii’s Aces in the Hole

How is it possible that Hawaii is not experiencing the same doldrums as the U.S. mainland? While it is true that Hawaii has experienced a downturn in the real estate market, few people acknowledge two variables unique to Hawaii’s real estate; 1) A desire shared worldwide to live in Hawaii and 2) The finite nature of real estate available to buy in Hawaii. When you consider a global base of buyers wanting to own a home in Hawaii and combine that with the physical limits of being one of the smallest land masses, it may not be so surprising after all. Also, as pointed out by Harvey Shapiro, the week U.S. dollar is giving foreign buyers much more for their money.

*Source: The Honolulu Board of REALTORS®

Elliot Lau

History of the Housing Market

Source:  Yahoo Video / ABC News